"Trong the gioi ca cuoc the thao, ok365 luon la tam diem thu hut su chu y cua moi nguoi. Nhung ban da bao gio tu hoi, dang sau nhung con so tuong chung ngau nhien ay la gi chua? Chung khong chi la nhung con so duoc dua ra mot cach tuy tien ma la ket qua cua mot qua trinh phan tich du lieu phuc tap, noi thong ke dong vai tro la nguoi dan duong dang tin cay. Viec hieu ro cach thuc thong ke dinh hinh nen ok365 se giup ban dua ra quyet dinh sang suot hon, thay vi chi dua vao cam tinh may rui.



Thong Ke La Nen Tang Cua Moi ok365



Nha cai, nhung ""bo nao"" dang sau viec dat keo, su dung cac mo hinh thong ke tinh vi de xac dinh xac suat xay ra cua tung ket qua. Qua trinh nay bat dau bang viec thu thap va xu ly mot luong lon du lieu lich su.



Du lieu Lich su va Mo hinh Du doan:



Moi phan tich deu bat dau tu qua khu. Cac chuyen gia thong ke se xem xet cac tran dau truoc day cua hai doi bong, bao gom hieu suat san nha/san khach, ket qua doi dau truc tiep (head-to-head), so ban thang ghi duoc va thung luoi trung binh. Ho ap dung cac mo hinh nhu phan phoi Poisson hoac cac thuat toan hoi quy de du doan so ban thang co kha nang xay ra cho moi doi.



Vi du, neu mot doi thuong ghi trung binh 2 ban khi doi dau voi doi thu yeu hon tren san nha, mo hinh thong ke se gan cho ho xac suat cao hon cho cua Tai hoac cua thang.



Suc Manh Cua Chi So Hieu Suat (Rating Systems):



Nhieu he thong thong ke tien tien su dung cac chi so danh gia suc manh doi bong da duoc chuan hoa, chang han nhu he thong Elo Rating (muon tu co vua) hoac cac bien the cai tien hon. Nhung he thong nay lien tuc cap nhat diem so cua doi sau moi tran dau. Khi diem Elo cua Doi A cao hon dang ke so voi Doi B, ok365 chap (Handicap) se duoc dieu chinh de phan anh su chenh lech ve suc manh thuc te nay.



ok365 Chau Au (1X2) va Su Chuyen Doi Xac Suat



ok365 Chau Au (Decimal Odds) la hinh thuc truc quan nhat de thay duoc su ap dung cua xac suat thong ke.



Cong thuc co ban: Xac suat du doan = 1 / ok365.



Neu mot nha cai dua ra ty le 2.00 cho doi chu nha thang, dieu do ngu y rang xac suat chien thang ma ho tinh toan la 1/2.00 = 50%. Tuy nhien, dieu quan trong can nho la ty le nay luon bao gom ""Bien loi nhuan"" (Vig/Overround) cua nha cai. Bien loi nhuan nay dam bao rang tong xac suat tinh toan cua tat ca cac ket qua (Thang, Hoa, Thua) luon lon hon 100%.



Vi du minh hoa:



Keo 1 (Chu): 1.80 (Xac suat co ban: 55.5%)

Keo X (Hoa): 3.50 (Xac suat co ban: 28.6%)

Keo 2 (Khach): 4.00 (Xac suat co ban: 25.0%)

Tong xac suat (chua tinh Vig): 55.5% + 28.6% + 25.0% = 109.1%



Con so 109.1% chinh la bien loi nhuan tich hop. Cac trang web phan tich uy tin thuong giup nguoi choi loai bo phan Vig nay de tim ra ty le xac suat thuc te hon ma nha cai dang nham toi.



Keo Chau A (Handicap) – Thong Ke Trong Viec Can Bang



Keo Chau A (Asian Handicap) la san choi cua cac mo hinh thong ke du doan chenh lech ban thang. Muc tieu cua keo nay la san bang co hoi cho hai doi co thuc luc chenh lech.



Phan tich Chenh lech:



Khi mot doi manh chap doi yeu 1.5 trai (AH: -1.5), dieu nay co nghia la cac mo hinh thong ke da xac dinh rang doi manh co xac suat thang cach biet 2 ban tro len la du cao de bu dap cho viec chap ban do. Neu xac suat thang voi cach biet 2 ban tro len duoi muc ma ok365 phan anh, do la luc gia tri (Value) xuat hien cho cua Duoi.



Nhieu nguoi choi chuyen nghiep danh thoi gian theo doi su bien dong cua keo chap. Su dich chuyen cua con so chap (vi du, tu -1.25 sang -1.5) thuong la dau hieu cho thay du lieu moi (thong tin chan thuong, thay doi doi hinh) da duoc cac mo hinh thong ke xu ly va cap nhat nhanh chong boi nha cai.



Tam Quan Trong Cua Viec Theo Doi Bien Dong Keo (Odds Movement)



Mot trong nhung chien luoc hieu qua nhat khi ap dung thong ke vao ca cuoc la theo doi su thay doi cua ok365 trong nhung gio phut cuoi truoc khi tran dau bat dau.



Keo Dong (Closing Line): ok365 dong, hay con goi la ok365 cuoi cung truoc khi tran dau dien ra, duoc xem la phan anh chinh xac nhat su dong thuan cua thi truong va mo hinh thong ke toi uu nhat cua nha cai (sau khi da loai bo phan lon yeu to cam tinh).



ok365 Neu ok365 mo ban dau rat cao cho mot ket qua, nhung lien tuc bi keo xuong (ty le giam) khi gio G den gan, dieu nay chung to co mot luong lon thong tin hoac dong tien duoc phan bo dua tren du lieu ung ho ket qua do.



Loi Ket: Su Dung Thong Ke De Chu Dong Hon



Viec ca cuoc khong nen chi la dat cuoc vao doi bong ban yeu thich. Khi ban tiep can ok365 thong qua lang kinh thong ke, ban dang chuyen minh tu mot nguoi choi may man thanh mot nha phan tich thong minh. Nam vung cach cac con so duoc tao ra, cach xac suat duoc chuyen doi, va cach thi truong phan ung se giup ban tim ra nhung diem ""lech pha"" giua xac suat thuc te va ty le ma nha cai dua ra. Hay luon tham khao cac nguon phan tich uy tin, noi du lieu duoc xu ly chuyen nghiep de ho tro quyet dinh dat cuoc cua ban mot cach khach quan nhat."



Xem them: Khuyen mai ok365